India seeks closer ties with China amid tariff tensions with the US

India is trying to balance escalating tensions with the US over Russian oil and trade tariffs through its policy of “strategic autonomy,” while accelerating steps toward cooperation with China.
Following the Russia-Ukraine war, India increased its energy imports from Moscow and continued to purchase discounted Russian oil despite pressure from Washington. While high tariffs imposed by the US heightened tensions in bilateral relations, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to China drew attention.

According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Europe’s share in Russia’s total oil exports fell to 11% after the war, while the share of Asia and Oceania countries rose to 81%. During this period, the share of Russian oil in India’s total imports increased from 1% before the war to 36% after.

Russia’s crude oil and condensate exports averaged 5 million barrels per day between 2020 and 2024, but fell to 4.3 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025.

TARIFFS FAIL TO MAKE INDIA BACK DOWN

US President Donald Trump, targeting goods that make up a significant part of trade with India such as textiles, jewelry, and shrimp, imposed a 50% tariff in August after India refused to halt Russian crude imports.

According to US data, bilateral trade in goods and services reached $212.3 billion in 2024, with $128.9 billion consisting of goods trade.
Within this framework, US exports to India stood at $41.5 billion, while India’s exports to the US were recorded at $87.3 billion. Trump’s tariffs are expected to reduce India’s exports to the US by about 40-43% and cost the Indian economy around $35-38 billion.

INDIA INSISTS “WE DID NOT VIOLATE INTERNATIONAL NORMS”

Peter Navarro, Trump’s senior advisor for trade and manufacturing, claimed in an interview with US media over the weekend that Russia sold crude oil to India at discounted prices following sanctions, and India refined this oil and exported it to Europe, Africa, and Asia, making significant profits.

Navarro accused India of fueling the “Russian war machine” with these moves, and the Indian government of putting its own interests above those of its people.
Trump, in a social media post yesterday, stated that the US had a trade deficit with India and described bilateral trade relations as a “one-sided disaster.”

Responding to Navarro’s accusations, India’s Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri told Indian media on Monday that his country did not violate international rules.
Puri argued that India’s oil imports from Russia were compatible with the G7 price cap mechanism and stabilized international markets, adding: “The fact is that no one can replace the world’s second-largest oil producer, which provides around 10% of global oil supply.”

Puri claimed the US administration was ignoring this reality. India defends its refusal to step back against US tariffs with an emphasis on strategic autonomy. According to this vision, Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks to maximize benefits for his country by keeping all options open vis-à-vis both China and the US.

INDIA DRAWS CLOSER TO CHINA AS TENSIONS RİSE WITH THE US

The strain in India-US relations has also affected communication between the two leaders. Reports suggested that Modi did not respond to Trump’s repeated calls. While ignoring Trump’s phone calls, Modi attended the 25th Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization held in Tianjin, China.

Visiting China for the first time in seven years due to tensions over border disputes, Modi emphasized in his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping that India and China were “partners, not rivals.”
Highlighting that consensus between the two countries outweighed their disagreements, Modi stressed that India was ready to assess and strengthen bilateral relations with a long-term perspective.

During the visit, important agreements were signed in transportation, visas, border security, trade, and various other areas.

MOSCOW, NEW DELHI’S ‘STRATEGIC OIL SUPPLIER’

Francesco Sassi, a faculty member at the University of Oslo, told AA that India’s summer crude imports from Russia reached a seasonal peak of 2.1 million barrels per day in June, averaging 1.8 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025.

“This figure is significantly higher than all of Russia’s other competitors in the Indian market,” Sassi said. “Moreover, the data clearly shows Moscow’s strategic importance as an oil supplier for New Delhi and India’s reluctance to comply with US demands to gradually end Russian oil imports.”