The U.S. raised its oil price forecast for this year, maintained the 2026 outlook

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), taking into account developments in global oil markets, revised its price forecast upward for this year while leaving next year’s outlook unchanged.

According to EIA’s “Short-Term Energy Outlook Report” for September 2025, despite an increase in global oil inventories in recent months, prices have not significantly fallen. Part of the production surplus has been added to strategic reserves or internal consumption stocks in countries like China. OECD inventories have also recently risen above the seasonal average. Inventories are expected to reach the upper range of the five-year average by the end of 2026 after the high demand during the summer months.

The report projects the average barrel price of Brent crude oil at $67.80 for this year. This price was previously estimated at $67.22 in the earlier report.

The average barrel price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is forecasted to be $64.16. The price estimate for this crude was $63.58 last month.

Prices Expected to Decline by Year-End

The EIA expects prices to fall to $59 in the last quarter of the year due to decreased summer demand and increased global supply. Prices are forecasted to drop further to $49 by spring 2026.

The report noted that low prices could lead OPEC+ and other producing countries to reduce supply, which would slow the growth of inventories later in 2026.

For next year, the EIA forecasts the average barrel price of Brent crude at $51.43, and WTI crude oil at $47.77.

The report also highlighted uncertainties in price forecasts. Factors such as Russia-Ukraine tensions, potential new sanctions, and U.S. trade negotiations pose risks to supply and demand. Additionally, the expected supply surplus later in the year could cause the OPEC+ group to reassess production plans.

U.S. Crude Oil Production

U.S. average daily crude oil production is expected to reach 13.44 million barrels this year. Last year, this figure was recorded at 13.23 million barrels.

Production is forecasted to be 13.3 million barrels per day next year.

Meanwhile, global oil supply is estimated to average 105.54 million barrels per day this year, with global oil consumption at 103.81 million barrels per day.

In 2026, global supply is expected to reach an average of 106.64 million barrels per day, and consumption to 105.09 million barrels per day.